Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Drop of the Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves recorded a decrease of 10 scores from open play than at this stage the previous campaign.

One of the biggest stories of England's top flight this campaign is the drop of goals scored in open play and the way sides are netting more from set-plays instead.

Comparing how goals have been scored to the first 11 games the prior season, we see 39 fewer scored in open-play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and penalties, giving us 13 fewer in total.

If we look at overall statistics, the number of shots sides are producing show a staggering 370 fewer in open play than this time last season.

And despite the notable jump in set-piece goals, there have actually been only two additional shots generated from these situations outside of spot-kicks, showing the proficiency teams have been at finding ways to score from dead-ball situations.

Goal Statistics Show a Story

The 301 goals recorded in 110 games to date calculates at 2.74 goals each match, which if it continued for all 38 games might be the least for five years, from five seasons ago (2.69 per game).

However, only under 200 goals coming in open-play translates to 1.78 each match and is heading to be the least for 16 years, since 2009-10 (1.76 per game).

The 2009-10 season is also the sole English top-flight campaign to see goals scored more often from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this season's rate of 0.77 each match (0.79 average).

What Clubs Account for This Change?

Regarding goals scored from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen by far the biggest drop, netting only four in 11 games, a reduction of 10 than this point last season.

Outside of Wolverhampton, the Premier League's decline in goals from open play is very much a London phenomenon, with five of the capital's seven sides netting at least five fewer goals from open play than the previous year.

To be fair, this is mainly because their scoring numerous goals at the start of the previous campaign instead of them really struggling to convert in open play this campaign.

Conversely Man City have seen the most significant jump, with nearly all of their 23 scores this season arriving in open play.

Dead-Ball Dominance

Looking at newly promoted sides with the teams that went down they took the place of. Play-off champions Sunderland have netted three more goals in open-play than the Saints achieved in their opening 11 matches on their way to the drop last season.

In terms of scoring from set-pieces (aside from spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have seen the most significant jump, with the two clubs compensating for the five fewer goals that they've produced in open-play with an equal amount from dead-ball situations.

Man United have netted twice as many scores from set-plays as they did in the 11 games last season prior to Ruben Amorim took charge, while Sunderland additionally prove more effective at converting than the club they replaced they replaced.

City seem unaware of the message about scoring more from set-pieces, as they've scored three less than the previous campaign, as have the Reds, though that might be down to the altered approach they're working to install.

General Tendencies

Six teams – the Gunners, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – represent the current campaign's leading trend-followers by netting less goals from open-play and increased from set-plays, while Manchester City are the unique club to go against the grain to date by achieving the exact opposite.

It will be interesting to observe if teams carry on to place such emphasis on set-plays as the season goes on or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and start netting more goals in open play as well.

Marisa Garcia
Marisa Garcia

A tech strategist with over a decade of experience in digital transformation and business innovation.