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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

But the latest field is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and recent strugglers rising collectively. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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