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Entering the world’s most-visited art institution in the middle of the day, taking eight items of invaluable Napoleonic jewellery and vanishing into the city traffic on humble scooters may seem like the most audacious of crimes, carried out for international notoriety and subsequent movie adaptations.

Experts who observe trends in international art crime, however, see the recent heist at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the latest in a series of smash-and-grab thefts focused more on the monetary worth of valuable gems or metals than the historical importance, perpetuating a pattern that has emerged over the last decade in Europe, the UK and the US. The venue, they propose, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“One might wonder why thieves who want to steal valuable jewellery are entering a world-famous museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” said Christopher A Marinello. “It's straightforward: it’s because nowadays a Cartier store is more secure.”

A spate of aggressive jewellery shop thefts mean that many outlets have beefed up their protection in recent years, with security personnel on their premises and wares no longer kept on display overnight. Cultural institutions, on the other hand, look more exposed, partly because of the inherent reason of being accessible institutions in historic buildings, and also the financial situation in many developed nations.

“Since Covid, governments across the world have reduced spending on law enforcement and the culture sector,” said Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it shows how at risk our museums have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The theft of the items – including jewelry pieces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the tiara of Empress Eugénie containing nearly 2,000 diamonds and a hugely valuable crown once possessed by a royal that the robbers dropped by the roadside on their way out – has naturally drawn comparisons with the historical theft of the famous painting from the same museum, carried out by the Italian handyman the thief.

More relevant points of reference may be the recent burglary of valuables from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over millions, the theft of a multi-million pound valuable object from Blenheim Palace the same year, the 2017 heist of a valuable item from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a series of thefts of sports memorabilia from American institutions.

“It's a clear trend here,” explained Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as rapidly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to stay whole, specialists say, the thieves would find it hard to find a buyer. “There’s no way to trade something as immediately identifiable as the Louvre’s jewels on the licit market”, said an art crime researcher of the Association for Research into Crimes against Art.

“They are too well-known, especially given the cultural authorities has released images of the items. Even a individual buyer or an auction house would want to see paperwork establishing legal possession before handling such striking pieces.”

In the past, institutions were often hesitant to go public about the disappearance of well-known works of art and would stay silent out of shame. Now, as art thefts are more reported on, the storage and sale of taken items is dangerous for any lawbreaker.

“If you steal a Picasso, it has to stay complete or it becomes valueless, and you have to conceive of a scheme to keep it in hiding, perhaps by moving it among difficult criminal actors,” noted Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the risk of an accomplice telling the police to collect a reward.”

For comparable factors, an investigator said it was highly improbable that the robbery had been commissioned. “Stolen to order is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “Nobody would touch this. It's global news and in all the media. If you buy this, if you are apprehended, you go to jail. You cannot show it to your acquaintances, you cannot leave it to your children.”

Modifying stolen works by melting down or reshaping does lower the worth. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with considerable risk because contemporary cutting techniques give gems a bigger and lighter surface area, and antique-cut stones would either attract notice or reduce value for a coverup.

Crucially, however, dismantling or reshaping eliminates the evidence of the theft. “My guess is that the Louvre thieves will try to take the items to locations with diamond expertise like Israel, another nation or even as close as a city, and find someone to remove the gems,” suggested Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already raised questions about protective steps at the institution, with a leaked state auditor report expected to be released soon criticising “significant” and “persistent” delays in updating systems and observing that surveillance were lacking in multiple areas. But security experts say displaying valuable objects in older structures with a constant flow of visitors comes with dangers that are not possible to eliminate completely.

“Older structures are more difficult to secure,” explained an art crime professor. “They often have large accessible windows that allows for criminals to escape, and there may be building protection statutes in place that mean you are unable to install them with secure windows.”

The most solid protective measures for structures should be designed “like a fortress”, said a security advisor. “It should include several layers to repel attackers.”

Modern buildings are fitted with advanced external CCTV cameras or integrated seismic detectors that alert about a broken glass in immediately, but historic institutions may be hesitant to alter their exteriors. Detection devices can be hard to install to stuccoed ceilings. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be turned off during the day as crowds walk through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which occurred between morning hours in Paris, was common of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “It's logical why thefts tend to happen at either opening or closing times. Frequently when security change their shifts and prior to the museum is crowded who actually act as extra protection.”

Technological progress may have thrown up new devices that can raise the alarm more quickly and efficiently, but it has also provided robbers new tools with which to bypass security measures. In the city, the robbers reached the museum’s first-floor window with a mobile equipment and breached a glass pane with a electric tool.

Elaine Sciolino said the discussion in France about the 232-year-old building had primarily centered on visitor management in recent years, and less on protection.

The museum has an on-site team of about fifty permanent firefighters, but their mission is mostly to safeguard the artworks from fires and flooding. “There isn't a rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all comes down to political will and funding, and currently France simply has no resources.”