Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
