A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
