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Initially, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a firm approach on Ukraine. Following making statements of "serious consequences" in August if Vladimir Putin continued blocking ceasefire discussions, the former president ultimately introduced considerable sanctions on the Russian two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly impacted the Russian leader's ability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

But, with his recently unveiled detailed peace proposal for the conflict, that was drafted by American and Russian officials without Ukrainian or EU involvement, Trump has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia position.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's initiative would effectively favor the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Although strong proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", large portions of the initiative effectively undermine that same independence. What represents a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his corporate past, the former president continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic border issue, like giving Russia a portion of Ukrainian soil will appease the president. However, Russia's war is not merely about occupying a charred region of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to destroy it so it stops functions as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the accountable leadership that Putin's growing autocracy withholds them.

Border Giveaways

While maintaining in position the presently separated oblasts of these areas, the plan would force Ukraine to give up the entire this eastern territory. In addition to rewarding Russia with land that its military have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a decade of conflict, this concession would make Ukrainian defensive positions critically weakened.

This region is the site of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the well-established military defenses that are a critical barrier to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, giving Russian forces a unobstructed way to the capital if he subsequently choose to resume the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Furthermore, in a action that would facilitate future fighting more feasible for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its troops from their present large number personnel to a limit of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's initiative imposes no such limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's legitimate leadership as extremists, Trump's plan declares: "All extremist belief system and practices must be rejected and banned." Apparently to emphasize this point, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump imposes no condition that the Russian leader endanger his regime by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

To be sure, the initiative makes Russia pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in law its position of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However given that Putin has violated comparable accords in the past – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to honor the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a handback of seized territory in the Donbas to the government – for what reason should we have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international defense commitments. Although the plan promises a "strong joint military response" should Russia resume its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the particulars vary from vague to troubling. The proposal would not only block Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude alliance nations from positioning military personnel on Ukraine's soil, effectively blocking the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Russia from restoring his reduced troops, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Concern

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would provide the nation with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any subsequent "major, planned, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a defense action. However unlike a capable national defense – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against future invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the commitment of alliance members, such as Trump, to respond through arms to Russia's aggression, a response they have {not